Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by ssanders82 3238 days ago
I don't think the fact that your coin-flip martingale strategy didn't work is evidence that "there aren't any betting strategies that can last over the long run".
1 comments

No, but over the long run, no betting system can guarantee a positive return. If you run enough simulations, you will inevitably lose. The Wizard of Odds[1] did a great piece on this and it's definitely worth a read.

Also, if you believe to have a betting system that does work, VegasClick[2] runs a $30k wager against your $3k if your system can survive at least 11 of 20 200,000 round games. It's easy money.

[1]: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/ [2]: http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge

I think the other posters mean sports betting and other betting markets when they say "betting" not just casino games where, as you rightly say, there's no way of making money.

In sports betting markets it is theoretically possible to make money, but very hard.

Yeah I was thinking of sports betting, however I guess even in casinos you can do card counting or apply the laws of physics to roulette wheels.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Doyne_Farmer#Beating_roulet... (although the roulette example could be classed as cheating ;)