[thrawy67]

Please refer to the ToI article I cited in the reference. This figure is not pulled out of thin air, but neither it is 100% accurate.

From ToI article: "The government, citing inputs available with it , told the Rajya Sabha on Wednesday that there were around 2 crore Bangladeshi immigrants staying illegally in India.

If you were to believe the government estimates, you have to believe it. Even if it's off by 50%, you still have 10 million of them.

P.S: In 2004 >> the estimate was 12 million, according to the article.

[kchoudhu]

Starting with 12MM[1] in 2004, what you are effectively suggesting is that 1 in 15 Bangladeshis has left India in the last decade[2]. Come on: outside of Superpower 2030 memes, the grass isn't that green in India, and I'd like to think that the first million or Bangaldeshis crossing over would have sent home word that migration wasn't actually worth it. Why go to India and be poor in Calcutta when you can go to the Middle East and make (even factoring in broker fees) 2-3 orders more money for your family?

I'm willing to acknowledge that there have been some cross border shenanigans in the last fifty years, but the statistics trotted out by the Centre are transparently politically motivated, i.e. lies. What is more, these are stupid lies, relying on completely irrational behavior of potential migrants, who in my experience are some of the savviest agents in existence.

[1] 10 million of whom came over in 1971, making for an annual migration of ~50K between 1971 and 2004.

[2] By this measure, every family in Bangladesh would have someone who has left for India in the last decade. This is...not true?

[thrawy67]

> what you are effectively suggesting is that 1 in 15 Bangladeshis has left India in the last decade

I am not suggesting anything. I am only answering to your questioning of the source of the numbers.

As for the your other points, you can hold counter or conspiracy theories. I was only answering to your source claim. You may want to repudiate this in public domain if you feel GoI is mis-estimating or ToI is misreporting.