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by mtgx 3235 days ago
I don't think hybrids have any future except in the heaviest of vehicles, where batteries won't make sense for another few decades.

We're already seeing companies being interested in making battery-only buses, tractors, semis, and even airplanes. Not all models of those types of vehicles may work with batteries, but it's a sign of what the future could bring.

3 comments

Total individual perspective here, but my dad took me on his worksite like 15 years ago to see the big super gorram awesome trucks (seriously those things are HUGE). When I asked about the engines, he said the trucks had massive diesel generators that powered motors, that in turn powered the wheels and hydraulics. So in a way, lots of construction equipment has kind of already been "hybrid."
I believe that's also how diesel trains work.
And submarines.
An electric power transmission is hardly hybrid. You just have two extra conversions in your transmission, mechanical to electric and electric back to mechanical.
The diesel-electric system used in Locomotives and heavy off-road mining trucks are literally examples of series hybrids. You may be objecting to ththe lack of battery storage, which isn't useful in those applications.
battery only buses make sense because the bug needs to run over rush hour and then can sit all do to charge. Battery operated tractors do not make sense without vastly better batteries because a tractor needs to run for 16 hours at max power (500hp). Sustaining 400000 kw for 16 hours is not easy. For semis and airplanes you need to consider your use: for short in town loads/short flights batteries can work, for longer distances we don't have the battery technology today to make it work.

Someone once told me battery technology has 2-3 more doubling left and then we hit chemical limits and cannot get more out of them. If this is correct batteries can never do the longer distances, but I don't know if it is correct.

> battery technology has 2-3 more doubling left and then we hit chemical limits and cannot get more out of them

We still have energy cells which are essentially bateries that you charge by pouring in some fluids just like in a regular car. However the tech is not mature enough yet.

While I don't believe hybrids will survive in the long run, I think that hybrids (and plug-in hybrids specifically) will play important role in transition period of passenger cars (use EV in cities, use gasoline if you want to go >100 km, refuel whenever you want).

A have Toyota Auris with hybrid synergy drive and even though it has really small battery (so it costs less than $25000 including tax), I am able to ride through small town using EV mode only and then use ICE between towns. My mileage is 4.4 l/100 km which is ~53.5 miles per gallon and I'm driving in city most of the time.