[the8472]

Let's take a family with two employed parents. They may commute with two sedans to work because either of them might need to pick up the kids or go shopping at a given time.

That's at least one sedan that could be replaced with a ridesharing or 1/2-seater commuter vehicle (based on preference and how shared the route is) and freed up once they're at work. The one that needs to pick up kids can call one a N minutes in advance when they leave work.

Also consider that kids may need to be picked up less often as they grow up and might even be allowed to call their own vehicles as needed, thus freeing up the parents and the need for a sedan. So as the time-window becomes shorter where a family vehicle is needed to be available 24/7 it may become a lot cheaper not owning one.

Autonomous vehicles might also have an indirect impact on shopping behavior if delivery to the home will become cheaper, again reducing the need for large vehicles to transport groceries and other purchases.

There is a lot of optimization potential. But I'll grant that this might take more time to percolate through society longer than tesla can ride on debt, so in the near term they certainly will have to keep delivering owned vehicles.

What I was really aiming for is that the timeframe for tesla to become a global player holding a large fraction of the market share may also be the timeframe for autonomous vehicles to transform the entire transportation sector.