[aerovistae]

> Not a single order has been delivered to a real customer nor have they even accepted orders yet.

And even if the first 30 truly weren't real customers, whatever that means, what is the point of that assertion from the OP? Is that supposed to imply that no Model 3's will ever be delivered? Musk said they're starting the ramp now. Does OP think he's just straight-up lying? What does the fact that deliveries are just starting have to do with anything at all? They're exactly on schedule.

[mikeash]

Worth noting that volume production starting in September has been the plan for quite a while. In fact, at the initial reveal last year, the only promise was "deliveries begin at the end of next year," so September will be somewhat ahead of the game.

Getting 30 cars out at the end of July wasn't a last-ditch attempt to make a deadline (the way the Model X seemed to be), it's actually getting things moving a little early.

[dvcc]

That was not the point of that at all, I just doubt that will be able to meet their expected output and deliver a car that isn't plagued with issues (employees can't/won't complain but your standard customer would).

[aerovistae]

It won't be plagued with issues.

How do I know this? Because Musk has too perfect of a record on taking care of every important detail in his projects. He didn't develop the world's most advanced space program, in a decade, from scratch, by accident.

He didn't create a car company and scale it to 100k cars annually, all to the tune of spectacular reviews and overwhelmingly positive customer reception, in a decade, from scratch, by accident.

And I really think people undervalue the fact that he did these two things simultaneously, as though it were an unimportant detail. It's perhaps the most important detail. It drives home the sheer quantity of problems he can take on all at once without dropping any balls.

He's not about to forget about reliability for the Model 3, or fuck it up, and throw all his efforts to waste. The idea of it just doesn't make any god damn sense when held up against his record. It's total nonsense and I just don't buy it.

[mikeash]

Model X was plagued with issues for about the first year. Especially those crazy doors. So it's not a given.

At the same time, I think what happened with the X is actually promising for the 3. Musk has said that they went overboard with the X, and it was a lesson learned for the future.

[btian]

Every car is plagued with issues in the first model year.

They will fix the problems, and investors will understand.

[hwillis]

Do you really think that 30 cars will be enough to work out those issues before they go to customers?