[PhasmaFelis]

This is the chance of an entirely colony dying out, right, not just the per-capita mortality rate?

[jly]

Yes, per-capita rates are tricky with honeybees since they adjust their hive numbers significantly during the year and slim down for winter and potential summer nectar dearth.

Measuring colony survival is what is really important.

[pyre]

The percentage of colonies that don't survive the winter.