[cwkoss]

I think the average cryptocurrency trader is much lower-information than you are estimating.

There are hundreds of rubes who see "Bitcoin Cash" and think that because it suddenly jumped to the 3rd largest cryptocurrency by market cap, lots of people are talking about it, and its cheaper than Bitcoin, this could be their chance to get the elusive short-term 3x+ crypto ROI. Many of these people have no concept of the locked supply.

I'd estimate that roughly 1/4 of buyers are informed BCH proponents, the other 3/4 are low-information get-rich-quick hopeful speculators.

[makomk]

Pretty much. BCH bulls who find out about the supply issue have been assuming that it can't be that much of a big problem, that most people who wanted to sell must've done so by now anyway, and of course there's no way to tell how much supply is actually locked up. BCH bears are mostly irrelevant to the price since, unless they expected it to be worth enough to justify locking their BTC in less reputable exchanges during the fork, they can't actually sell yet. Anyone who isn't following the online discussions closely probably simply doesn't know about this - the news articles I've seen haven't mentioned that issue, and it took many hours for this information to even percolate through the discussions. Claims like "3rd largest cryptocurrency by market cap" have been a lot more prominent everywhere. (Also, if you want an idea of what BCH supporters are thinking right now, the front page r/btc is currently a good place to look.)

[homero]

There's thousands of people like me checking every minute if we can deposit bch to sell. There's millions waiting and I'm hoping to be the first.

[thefalcon]

Fair enough, we'll all find out in due course. The constant flow of comments where people are trying to equate this particular hard fork (the end result of a very long and messy civil war) with any old Joe creating his own BTC fork is clearly just grinding my gears a little too much. There's a reason to expect BCH to end up as more than just a boondoggle (to the extent that any cryptocurrency can be said to be more than just a boondoggle): Bitcoin with larger blocks has been desired by many people for a very long time.

[panarky]

I'd guess a lot of the BCH volume is from well informed momentum traders riding the volatility wave.