[ABCLAW]

His argument is almost tautological, because it is conditional on the basis that the society is healthy.

Societies fall apart over slow, widely predicted economic adjustments all the time, because healthy societies have buffering homeostatic functions.

Once the adjustment exceeds the ability of the society to buffer, the adjustment rapidly moves from the 'slow and widely predicted' bucket to the 'war, disease and chaos' bucket. One might note that this process leaves the society looking healthy until the moment when suddenly it isn't.