[aphexbr]

"they are selling a very well understood, easily replicated goods - namely content"

No, they're not. They're selling a service that allows you to rent content and have it stream to you instantly. The content library is what attracts people, of course, but their core business is selling the service.

"Unless we went back to the big studio era when talent was locked up with multi year contracts"

Erm, they already produce Netflix Originals, which are exclusively locked up on there (and their competitors all do the same thing). How does that differ from your suggestion?

"nothing can stop a Hulu from poaching a great show runner from NFLX"

...and nothing can stop Netflix from getting the licence to a show that used to be on Hulu. Also nothing to stop them both licencing the same show at the same time.

"Its long term success is suspect to me, debt or not."

Just Netflix, or do you also think that Hulu, Mubi, Filmstruck, etc. are all doomed as well? (I left Amazon out because obviously Prime streaming obviously isn't their core market) If just Netflix, what differs in your view that makes them more vulnerable to their competition?

[saimiam]

Apart from your point about Netflix selling access to content rather than content itself (which I'll get to), I feel you are making exactly the same point as I am without your realizing it.

Netflix is trafficking in a commodity over which it cannot have monopolistic control. Take, for example, your own instance - licensing shows which used to be on Hulu.

Producing originals isn't something only NFLX has the expertise to do. AMC was home to some of the best shows of this century. No monopoly for NFLX there.

For NFLX to be spoken of at the same level as FB, Goog, and Amazon, I'd have thought they had an insurmountable moat - Social in the case of FB, search relevance for GOOG, and 2-day fulfillment for AMZN. When I don't see a monopoly, I start to wonder why NFLX is so loved by Wall Street and not treated as a commodity like any other content channel is.

I suspect NFLX will end up being just another dividend paying stock like a utility. That's not a failure at all but it isn't ever going to justify being gushed about along with the other companies in FAANG.

Back to your point about a service which lets me rent content - that would be true if they were truly a content aggregator which lets anyone including Hulu serve content to renters and kept a haircut for themselves. Amazon's Marketplace is a great example of service which is designed purely to act as a platform for 1st and 3rd party vendors. Obviously, right now, NFLX isn't interested in this.

[aphexbr]

No, Netflix are interested in providing a streaming service where you rent movies instantly from their catalogue for a fixed monthly fee. Nothing you said changes this.

You also didn't answer my point - if Netflix's model is doomed, why only them? You seem to avoid the idea that the entire sector runs on the same models, so what is Netflix not doing to protect themselves that Hulu, etc. are doing?

I can't speak for Wall Street as I really don't care about that side of things. You do seem to have a massive crush for them over their competitors, though, I'm just curious why that is.

"Netflix is trafficking in a commodity over which it cannot have monopolistic control"

So are a lot of businesses, online and offline. Especially service providers that run using someone else's content/platform. So what?

[saimiam]

> Why only them?

I did initially question their path to success but I later made it clear that I saw them becoming dividend paying, slow moving utility type companies. I said that same thing in multiple ways in my reply to you.

The competitors like HBO or Hulu are privately held and are therefore less susceptible to market sentiment turning against them.

(Also, I may be wrong about this but your tone sound antagonistic to me. Please don't impute motives like "crush for them over their competitors." Not only do I not know what you mean by it, I really don't feel like engaging with anyone who talks like this.)