[Turing_Machine]

You are assuming that everyone leads an equally-risky lifestyle when that is clearly not the case.

Statistics are useful for large numbers, but can be quite misleading for individuals (especially for people as divergent in behavior as human beings).

Just a guess, but I would bet that avoiding drunk driving (or being on the road at times that drunks are likely to be driving), taking care with prescription drug use, avoiding swimming pools, and changing your smoke detector batteries regularly would double that 200 year span, at least. Maybe more.

[naasking]

> You are assuming that everyone leads an equally-risky lifestyle when that is clearly not the case

No I'm not. Everyday risks, like slipping in the shower, or getting in a car accident, or falling down the stairs, are common and fatal enough to nearly kill everyone before 200 years old.

Certainly risk factors change all the time, and that might get slightly extended, but life is inherently risky.

[Turing_Machine]

"Everyday risks, like slipping in the shower, or getting in a car accident, or falling down the stairs, are common and fatal enough to nearly kill everyone before 200 years old."

I addressed car accidents (those are going to go way down in the future anyway).

Can you show me the actual calculation that demonstrates that "nearly everyone" will die in an accident within 200 years?

According to https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/accidental-injury.htm

the annual accidental death rate in the U.S. is about 42.6/100,000 population. Now, that's going to go up to some extent in an elderly population (though maybe not that much, since we're positing therapies that keep one healthy into advanced age). Let's double the rate. The annual probability of dying an accidental death would then be 0.000852.

That does not appear to be consistent with "nearly everyone" (say, >90%) dying within 200 years.

[naasking]

>90% is a little high. Nearly everyone would experience a near fatal accident, as I initially said; many would die by 200 years, not all. If I said nearly everyone would die, blame that on hyperbole due to cellphone access.