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by robeastham 3252 days ago
I agree with all the points you made specifically about AltspaceVR. They may have been in a better place right now if they'd tried to bootstrap. Who knows, there are probably a number of factors at play here. When I tried it ages ago I was wowed by the potential, but put off by the idiot to interesting ratio. Also sometimes just being too early is enough to kill you right out of the gate.

On to whether you'd be insane to fund VR right now. When I checked http://vrlfg.net/ just now there were 2587 active VR sessions from a total of 840797 active Steam sessions. Thanks for that link by the way! Put another way approximately 0.3% of all active sessions on Steam right now. This does not sound terrible to me given how embryonic immersive computing is and how expensive the first generation of PC based VR kit is. I wonder how the stats would stack up for mobile VR? Most likely not higher I'd guess.

So, what's the market for PC games in 2017? Approximately $25billion (sources: http://bit.ly/2pm1wBO && http://bit.ly/2qc61ef)? The 840797 active sessions above include free or free to play PC games on Steam. There aren't so many free VR games and so today's 0.3% on Steam if extrapolated to the PC gaming market as a whole could easily equate to $75million. Not an insignificant number for a new market and new medium. Sure if you want less risk and more potential upside make a mobile game for a market with an established channel. But the signal to noise ratio in that market makes it difficult to get noticed there if you are not already established. Plus poking at a screen is not as much fun as VR development :-)

Those studios and companies that get an early foothold in the immersive software world could be the Zynga or even Google of tomorrow. I sure know how difficult it can be to raise finance in the immersive sector - especially in Europe. There are plenty of investors, even early stage ones, who still consider investing in immersive tech to be too risky/early at this stage, but I'm not sure many of them would go as far as to say doing so right now would be insane. Many of them are making some tentative investments, I only see momentum increasing in this respect.

Ask yourself this question. Do you think you'll do most of your computing sitting behind a physical mouse, keyboard and monitor in 50 or even 30 years time? Humans evolved to work in three dimensions. I just don't see us jabbing at touch screens forever. Remember the typewriter?

Some more food for thought here: http://www.dataselect.com/vr-headsets-more-popular-than-tabl...

Disclaimer: I run a company related to immersive technology (http://realityzero.one) and own the Vive, Rift, Gear VR and Daydream. So I guess you could say I'm more than a little biased when it comes to discussing the merits of immersive technology.

1 comments

I dont think it is possible to boot strap a VR company. I have tried. Unique art assets cost a small fortune, as do animations, I found even with as much user generated content I still needed an artist, a server dev, and a front end dev. So unless you can get 100 hours a week of pro work, you dont stand a chance.