[dankohn1]

It's a perfectly reasonable question to ask whether the 60 vote threshold can survive for any kind of legislation in the future. In particular, here is an argument that American democracy is doomed because of the way partisanship ratchets towards more extreme mechanics over time: https://www.vox.com/2015/3/2/8120063/american-democracy-doom...

However, it remains the case that in 2009, 59 senators were ready to vote for a public option, but there was no 60th. By contrast, there were nowhere close to even 50 votes for removing the filibuster and changing to a 50 vote threshold.

Please do not miss the fact that Lieberman had no rational justification for opposing the public option and that one of the keenest observers at the time accused him of being "driven more by a pathological dislike of the liberals who dogged him in 2006 than by any remotely rational policy judgment." http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2009/12/lieberma...

[joe_the_user]

Sure, 59 People were ready to vote but not so ready they'd take the action to remove the limit.

Those are the facts. You are laying emphasis on the one person who wouldn't vote and I'm laying emphasis on the 51+ wouldn't take take stronger action.

I think it's reasonable to give my emphasis given the way the Democratic Party has behaved over time.

[dankohn1]

And we reached agreement! I thought that can never happen on discussion boards.

[comex]

On the other hand, if they had removed the limit, (a) there would have been an even bigger Republican backlash against "Obamacare" (if that's possible), and (b) the precedent would have emboldened Republicans to suspend the filibuster for their priorities as well. Result? In 2017, the Senate would have more motivation to repeal Obamacare and fewer limitations: they wouldn't have to shoehorn the repeal bill into the reconciliation process to avoid the filibuster, as they're currently trying, which (among other effects) limits the provisions they can include. And so they'd probably have passed their bill, and the public option would have died in 2017, just a few years after its creation.

I suppose that voters could have hypothetically had a positive reaction to the public option once actually set up, and rewarded Democrats for it in subsequent elections. But I doubt it. Although Medicare already exists, the public option would represent a significant expansion which would probably come with serious growing pains - plenty of material for Republicans to make horror stories out of. Probably fewer actual cases of huge premiums (which are already not that common), but it's not like statistics have ever been much barrier to politicians and their preconceived narratives. I guess the GOP wouldn't have been able to weaken the law through a constitutional challenge, as they did with Medicaid expansion - after all, the public option can't be unconstitutional unless Medicare is. But the Supreme Court is highly political, and I wouldn't be surprised if the law ended up being weakened some other way by a 5-4 majority...

But politically, Republicans would have a stronger alternative to offer: ACA without the public option. Y'know, the thing they currently portray as the root of all evil; I think they'd have ended up seeing it as a good conservative compromise, that preserved universal coverage availability without requiring the government to be involved directly. Arch-conservatives might not like that outcome (then again, they might) - but they'd likely accept it as an intermediate step, that still accomplished the substantive change of repealing a huge government program (the public option). It would be much easier to get consensus on than the repeal-in-name-only bills they're tossing around in the real world.

I suppose I'm getting way too speculative; the last two paragraphs aren't even directly related to the nuclear option, although they're meant to question the upside of Democrats hypothetically having deployed it. There would've been serious downsides, not just in health care; it's quite possible the 60 vote rule would end up being killed entirely rather than only for 'special' bills, so Republicans in the current Congress would've been able to pass a wide variety of their priorities, and repeal a wide variety of Democrats'. (For all I know you might support the Republicans on their other priorities, but the Democrats whose votes we're talking about certainly didn't.)