[ghaff]

I do think we'll get to fully autonomous for some significant useful subset of driving such as paved public roads and can probably do things to help out the AIs with corner cases (beacons, etc.). That said, I actually agree that the last 10% that gets things to reliable Johnny-cab level are probably a lot further than many are assuming. Given the level of investment and advances that have been made I'm probably even more optimistic than I was, but I still think it could be 30-40 years before you can order a robo-Uber in Manhattan.