[seanmcdirmid]

If you asked me this in 1989, we were all sure china will get democracy in 20 or 30 years, it was just a matter of time. The 30th anniversary of Tiananmen is in a couple of years, and things haven't gotten much better.

I was told in 2006 by a prominent Chinese researcher when visiting that there were just a bunch of old fogeys in government and that's why some internet sites were blocked. They would die off/retire soon and the internet would be completely open. Of course, that isn't what happened: after the 2008 Olympics things got much worse and today we fondly look back on 2006 as s time when we could actually use Facebook in china without fiddling through a VPN.

We were told in 2010 that Beijing's air pollution problem would definitely be solved by 2020.

When I first lived in china 2002, I found longer term expats to be so salty and cynical, wow they are so close minded! Before I left just last year I of course had become that expat.

In another 30 or 40 year what china will be honestly can't be predicted.