| Your brain weighs about 3 lbs and uses about 20 watts. It's an analog device. It does not have optical interconnects and the switching speeds of the components within it are governed by chemical rather than electrical processes: signals within it propagate at under a few thousandths of a percent of the speed of light. It takes about 3 years to boot up and begin to be sensible and over 12-15 years it achieves roughly human intelligence. Well before those 15 years it surpasses all of our AI in a variety of tasks for which AI is not intelligent enough. The brain does lots of things, but some of them are quite small and well-defined intelligent tasks, such as judging the meaning of a sentence it is parsing in a language it has learned, or other "AI"-type work. We can easily estimate whether it is doing so correctly. (For example through reading comprehension tests, which we have standardized.) Human brains are able to pass these tests and our best AI fails these tests. The only way that there is no digital device that can ever model these aspects of this analog device well enough to make the same meaningful calculations (such as deciding what a sentence means in the context of human culture), i.e. the only way the analog device has a monopoly on the calculation and judgment it performs, for not only the next 10, 30, 50, or 100 years, but 1,000 or even 10,000 years, is if this analog device is a keyfob to a magical ethereal plane where our souls and consciousness do all the real intelligent work, only communicating back to our corporeal selves through an antenna which is our brain. Under that scenario it is certainly possible that AI will be a failed dream forever. After all, rather than 3 lbs of analog device doing work, our ethereal selves could each be the size of a billions of our universes. Then it would be silly to imagine we could ever accurately model any part of that. I don't think it's a false dichotomy here - I think it's one or the other. In my personal opinion the latter scenario is unlikely. In my personal scenario anyone who says that nothing digital will ever capture the calculating power of 3 lbs of meat is living on the same side of history as Lord Kelvin when he announced "Heavier than air flying machines are impossible". To the exact and same extent, true AI is impossible. |