[frgtpsswrdlame]

I think they're much more similar than AI and flight. We've been promised AI for decades and it's always just around the corner. Yet even today we don't have even simple worm level AGI. We have game-players and cool-picture-makers and maybe some categorization and function-approximators which are useful to business tasks but in general it's a bunch of playthings and fluff.

[sho]

I really think you should examine your way of thinking. I'm sure charlatans have been making and breaking promises about pretty everything you can think of since the beginning of time. It's meaningless and is no basis for estimation.

I am talking about raw scientific possibility, and a good rule of thumb is: if you see it in nature, then it is assuredly possible, and humans will eventually do it a thousand times better.

Cold fusion: Does not exist in nature. Only exists in (controversial) theory. I'll believe it when I see it.

Hot fusion: Exists in nature so it's possible. After developing the technology, humans will be able to do it better. Will take a while.

Flight: Exists in nature, so it's possible. After developing the technology, humans can do it better. Took a while.

Intelligence: Exists in nature (ie you and me). After developing the technology, humans will be able to do it better. Will take a while.

See the pattern?

[calafrax]

> humans will eventually do it a thousand times better.

From an energy conservation perspective nature is perfect. It is impossible for humans to do better than nature when it comes to conserving energy, which is a pretty key problem, so it seems a little optimistic to think that humans can do 1000X better than nature at very many things (or any?).

[sho]

> From an energy conservation perspective nature is perfect

I don't understand. Energy is always conserved no matter if it's nature or humans - literally the first law of thermodynamics. Nature, humans, aliens, anything else is all "perfect" so I don't understand your point, or its relevance

[calafrax]

My point is that in this key area it is impossible to do better than nature since nature is already perfect.

I am suggesting that the assumption that humans are generally able to do 1000X better than nature may be flawed if nature can already do the most important things so well.

[sho]

I don't mean to be rude but that's not a coherent argument. I don't understand what you're trying to say. Nature is certainly not "perfect" in any interpretation.

I don't doubt that you have well-intentioned beliefs, but before stating them again you need to withdraw and figure out how you can state them in an understandable way. When you've done that, come back and we can talk. I am saying this with the best of intentions btw.

[frgtpsswrdlame]

I might accept that difference with the understanding that if AI is analagous to flight, we're currently at 6th century Chinese kites and not 10 years from Kitty Hawk (which seems to be the perception when the flight analogy is made).

[sho]

Then we are in complete agreement. I am only commenting on the physical possibility. It could very well take a thousand years!