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by le-mark 3259 days ago
The author made the mistake of citing specific examples that weren't very good. It's odd to me that's there's this conflation of ai with the singularity. Strong ai is only one path to the singularity, others being human augmentation, and group minds. Also, the idea of this all being a 'failed dream' was addressed by Vinge in this talk[1]. He picks a metric, then tracks how it would develop in the case of a singularity never happening. Very enlightening to see his thoughts on this.

[1] http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/feb/15/what-if-the-singula...
1 comments
nhaehnle 3259 days ago
My pet theory is that if everything goes as well as it can go, people thousands of years from now will call the period we are currently living through the singularity.

I mean, if you look at the definition of singularity that is implied by the site behind your link -- "self-accelerating technologies will speed up to the point of so profound a transformation that the other side of it is unknowable" -- then to be quite frank, that has basically already happened.

BTW, I'm not trying to say that the singularity has ended already. It's a development that started 1-2 centuries ago and is currently ongoing, and pedants of the future will quibble that it's not truly a singularity (but then again, true "naked" singularities simply don't exist in nature, so that point is moot).

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marcosdumay 3259 days ago
> "self-accelerating technologies will speed up to the point of so profound a transformation that the other side of it is unknowable"

It is not even the first time this happen. There was something fitting this description starting the Neolithic, that people are not sure what exactly it was. There was writing and the big civilizations that happened through it. And there's the scientific/industrial revolution that we can argue endlessly if it is or isn't just a part of what is happening now (but falls just outside of your timeframe).

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JoeAltmaier 3259 days ago
Re: writing. Lots of the oldest clay tables are rants about how 'our laws are the best' and 'other cities' laws will make you work too hard'. Apparently writing really took off when it got used for PR!
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