[megaduck]

Looking at the raw numbers from Apple and Google (not AdMob's!), Android's supremacy is looking increasingly inevitable.

At the Droid X launch, Google claimed 160,000 activations a day, which translates to a run rate of almost 60 million devices a year. More importantly, the Android growth rate looks like an exponential curve up at this point. Google's announcements show a 60% growth in Android over the past 3 months.

In the long run, Apple simply can't match those numbers. Their install base will give them the lead for another year, and their total unit sales will continue to grow, but the marketshare future looks like it belongs to Android.

[tzs]

"but the marketshare future looks like it belongs to Android"

That's fine with Apple. They don't mind having a smaller market share than someone else, as long as they have a big share in that subset part of the market that actually makes money.

How much does Google make on each Android phone sold by someone else?

[stanleydrew]

Google makes $0 on those sales directly. But I don't think they're losing sleep over that. They don't want to make money selling hardware. They think hardware should be a commodity.

[billmcneale]

I'm pretty sure that Apple would love to have profits and market share over profits alone.

[alexro]

If Microsoft deliver WinPhone 7 as planned, the market share it gains will most likely be taken from Android.

[theBobMcCormick]

Not necessarily. Don't forget that BlackBerry and Symbian both have more marketshare than either iPhone or Android. In Symbian's case, much, much more. Not to mention that the smartphone market as a whole is still expanding, mostly at the expense of traditional "dumb" phones.