[nonbel]

>"In the study, the goal was to predict the probability of death (POD) for patients with pneumonia so that high-risk patients could be admitted to the hospital while low-risk patients were treated as outpatients."

So what they wanted to know is the POD|"No hospital" but they clearly collected data about POD|"Hospital" (since it included ICU admission, etc).

The problem is they measured the wrong thing and then misinterpreted their results. Worse, it looks like the study was designed to be this way!