[steven777400]

This is plausible, but I still have a few concerns. EV will need battery replacement on some routine basis. How will that effect the TCO and lifetime of the vehicle? One of the advantages of gas vehicles is that I can buy a vehicle very cheap and operate it for many many years. Furthermore, I can park it outside (it doesn't need to be in a garage). I expect and usually see lifespan of 20 years and 200,000 miles on gas vehicles.

It seems like there are still too few EVs to fully understand their lifespan and long-term maintenance costs (including battery replacement).

I also want to see how fast "fast charging" will be and what kind of adverse impact it has on the battery. Is it acceptable to the usability and lifespan of the vehicle to routinely charge on fast chargers? I don't want to sit at the charging station for 45 minutes when a gas car can be fully fueled in 5 or less.

At home, my expectation is that a vehicle does not need a garage, so charging at home may present a logistical challenge (OR, weather-proof outside charging stations might also be deployed). Likewise for apartments and condos with shared parking.

I think all these issues can be overcome, but they will need some thoughtful approaches to ensure that EVs are reasonable for as many people as possible to own and use, not just the wealthy.

[anovikov]

Tesla's existing batteries are expected to be more or less good for 500,000 miles, some already made it to 190,000 miles - average lifespan of a car - with under 10% degradation. 200K miles - easily, nearly every battery will do that with at worst 20% degradation. No, almost no car will ever need a battery replacement unless battery was bricked by gross mishandling (equivalent of fueling a gasoline car with diesel or something like that).

https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/

[jacquesm]

> No, almost no car will ever need a battery replacement unless battery was bricked by gross mishandling

How would that be possible? Charge and discharge cycles are closely monitored and controlled by computers.

[anovikov]

A real Soviet hero, with good training and some vodka, can do almost everything comrade... No fool proof is a real proof, people manage to break all kind of things. But, that is not a wear and tear - it is about as easy to brick a new battery as a 10 year old one.

[sokoloff]

My 2015 LEAF has about 10% degradation in under 11K miles. I doubt Tesla is 20x better.

[philipkglass]

It looks like the 2015 Leaf has a 24 kWh battery. The current entry-level Model S has a 75 kWh battery and it can have up to a 100 kWh battery.

That matters because battery capacity fade increases non-linearly with depth of cycling. If both a Leaf owner and a Model S owner drive 40 miles per day, I'd expect the Leaf battery capacity to fade more than 3x as fast as the Model S capacity, because of the deeper battery cycling. That's true even of the Model S 60/60D that had a 75 kWh battery software-locked to 60 kWh of usable capacity. The capacity fade is linked to the physical characteristics of the battery; the software unlock to a full 75 kWh just bought the option to discharge the battery more deeply for longer uninterrupted driving.

[sokoloff]

> It looks like the 2015 Leaf has a 24 kWh battery. The current entry-level Model S has a 75 kWh battery and it can have up to a 100 kWh battery.

So, a net price of about $1K/kWh of battery seems to be the going rate.

[anovikov]

Correct. And when the Roadster was released, it was the price of just the battery.

[sokoloff]

Weatherproof outdoor charging stations are already here. The mall near me has a couple with no cover whatsoever.

The charging protocol is pretty well-designed for electrical safety already.