[justinterested]

I think a fair point to add is the fact that Saudi's probably misspoke before the IPO leading to this piercing analysis from various analysts. Perhaps they know that the price is way less than 2 Trillion Dollars and will be happy with it. As someone has already mentioned, there are other risks that need to be considered (some of which the analysis covers)

- Dividend, Taxes and Royalty Whack a Mole - Reduce Dividends, it increases the valuation but, pay back more dividends in the 2nd year back to the majority shareholders. It throws the yearly cash flows into a spin. Investors may start offloading the stock.

- Political Risks i.e a major coup where the royal family is deposed and another government installed.

- Governance Risks - What if Minority Shareholders have no say and no power. What if Assets cannot be seized ?

Add these risks and discount factor should be way higher like 30-40%.

What say ?