[yakult]

This is purely speculation, but judging by how gun-ho they were about OPEC production cuts, they may have much less oil than widely believed. It could be they would have needed to cut production anyway since the wells are aging, and they're just making the best of it.

[tmnvix]

"Industry executives, analysts and investors told Bloomberg their analysis -- based on oil reserves and cash flow projections under different tax scenarios -- suggests Aramco is worth no more than half, and maybe as little as a fifth, of that amount [$2 trillion]. This means Saudi Arabia would earn a fraction of the $100 billion implied by its valuation if it sells 5 percent to the public in 2018, as planned."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/saudi-ara...

[colechristensen]

Whether or not that is true, what they're doing is diversification. Selling off some of the oil assets long before they're depleted to invest in assets that won't be depleted. Speculation like yours determines the length of the runway, but it's clear to everyone that it will end probably in 50-100 years. In order not to collapse in what would be a global catastrophe, SA must do things exactly like this to survive.

[toomuchtodo]

Would you invest in an asset class that is only expected to decline in value going forward?

[yakult]

Depends on whether I get a price better than my assessment of the asset's present value.

[toomuchtodo]

Granted, if you can get a discount at acquisition, it might make sense.

[eru]

No such thing in an efficient market.

[MR4D]

That's true only if you believe in efficient markets. There is significant evidence that they are not. (Google "EMH disproved" and pick whichever reference you'd like)

[eru]

Depends on how strong you like your Efficient Market Hypotheses. The strongest version "markets know the future" is obviously wrong. The weaker version that say something like "it's really hard work to beat the market" are obviously right.

I invite anyone who disputes the weaker versions to go and make a fortune in trading. All the "EMH disproved" nonsense is mostly that: nonsense.

[thephyber]

What is the market cap of the largest horse buggy-whip manufacturer these days? The largest automotive manufacturer?

I don't think that term means what you think it means.

[eru]

> Efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a theory in financial economics that states that an asset's prices fully reflect all available information.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis)

So, if buggy-whip manufacturing is really such a terrible business that everyone can tell will go under in a few years, their shares will already trade low.

For today's care manufacturers, the jury is still out and they can still pay quite a few dividends even when in decline. Hence their reasonable non-zero share price.

> I don't think that term means what you think it means.

Please re-evaluate.

[bousaid]

They have plenty of oil. And more is found every day.

[justinterested]

Undoubtedly, they do have plenty of oil and may find more. The political risks and uncertainty around that region is the big problem really. Middle East has so far been stable (atleast the GCC). With Qatar problem, it makes the investors nervous.

[zdkl]

It's not about quantity, it's about value and cost through time.