[ared38]

> Every minimum wage increase is different!

Sure, but

> You can't extrapolate this stuff.

Why not? I'm not saying it's like physics where we can make nearly exact models, but can't we at least make educated predictions based on previous examples, taking into account the different circumstances?

After all, in your hypothetical you already implicity modeled that a minimum wage a certain percentage of a "reasonable" wage won't hurt employment, while one much higher will.

> The question is not "Are minimum wage increases good in general?" the question is "Given the potential tradeoffs, is this specific minimum wage increase good?"

This only underscores the importance of extrapolation -- lawmakers need to be able to predict these tradeoffs to make good decisions (if extrapolation is possible).

[tuna-piano]

Fair point, I agree that extrapolation could be important here. If the effects of the $13 minimum wage are considered positive in Seattle, that would be good for the Portland government to know.

I guess my issue with your first comment is that it seemed like it was trying to consider minimum wage increases as generally good or bad, which I disagree with. I think it's much more nuanced than that, and it sounds like you agree.

The question I now read your first comment as asking is, "Why have studies shown this minimum wage increase as more harmful than other minimum wage increases? Of course, the answer is just that the elasticity of demand for low-wage labor in this case appear greater than in other cases.

The question is: what does the labor elasticity graph look like? And that's what these studies are really trying to figure out.