[Beltiras]

Droids are apparently bad at estimating outside odds since the two instances we see in the movie end with an unlikely outcome given the estimate.

[rflrob]

Or C3PO is just a stodgy old frequentist: https://www.countbayesie.com/blog/2015/2/18/hans-solo-and-ba...

[devrandomguy]

And humans see patterns in a sample size of two ;)

[Beltiras]

Maybe it will rain today. Maybe it won't. 50/50.

[tripzilch]

"Even though the chance of rain was higher than predicted, it wasn't quite so high that it actually rained that day"

(translated from a cartoon by Dutch absurdist/cartoonist "Gummbah")

[fineline]

They said on the forecast yesterday there was a 50% chance of rain today, and looking outside I can see they got it right. Uncanny.

[takingflac]

You forgot to add in all those tie fighters chasing them that also tried to make it through an asteroid field.

[talmand]

Plus the bridge of one star destroyer which we've also seen as potentially disastrous for the ship.

[MR4D]

Survivorship Bias.

[adrianN]

Publication bias.

[Bartweiss]

When it's people, I think that's the anthropic principle. (And the file drawer is a much messier place to end up...)

[InclinedPlane]

Han Solo is just force sensitive, that's all.