[philipkglass]

Shutting the mine could eliminate more than seven thousand jobs, in a county of thirty-seven thousand people. “Greene County will become a ghost town,” the neighbor wrote.

Isn't that the normal fate of towns built around resource extraction after the resource is economically exhausted? The American West is littered with ghost town remnants around depleted mines. It doesn't make much more sense to stay in a coal mining town in Someplace, Appalachia after the coal is gone than to stay in a silver mining town in Someplace, Colorado after the silver is gone.

I saw similar grievances from dying logging towns when I was growing up in the Pacific Northwest. The flashpoint was government action to protect the remnants of old growth forest that the endangered Spotted Owl lived in. The underlying problem was that loggers were exploiting old growth forest faster than it could regenerate. Deregulation wasn't going to make their way of life sustainable. You can't extract what isn't there any more.

If the residents of these coal-centered towns can find a way to reinvent the local economy to not depend on declining mines, that's great. I wish them luck with that. But most probably won't. We need to prepare to help people transition to other regions and other opportunities when the mines are no longer making money and the towns around them no longer prosper.

[opportune]

I'm originally from an area not in coal country, but right by it and heavily influenced by it. I couldn't agree with you more. Both my home state and the federal government are already essentially subsidizing these people to live in these communities simply because it's where they were born. There is no infrastructure for jobs because there are no industries other than coal and growing marijuana / making moonshine (although these are done on either an amateur level or highly consolidated).

I am normally a big fan of welfare and similar social services, but especially when they empower recipients to get back on their feet. There are plenty of communities in appalachia with sky-high unemployment and a huge percentage of their residents essentially draw SSI for most of their lives. They need to move, because they and their children will just draw welfare in perpetuity at the expense of everyone else.

Of course, there aren't a whole lot of ethical ways to get them to move. Forcing them to move is obviously a terrible idea. Making welfare/SSI contingent on moving could work, but will be absolutely terrible for those with all their wealth tied up in their house. It's a hard problem to solve, especially since a lot of these people are okay with / used to just making enough to get by.

[philipkglass]

Making welfare/SSI contingent on moving could work, but will be absolutely terrible for those with all their wealth tied up in their house. It's a hard problem to solve, especially since a lot of these people are okay with / used to just making enough to get by.

Most of these people probably need to move if they've still working age. Maybe one way to reduce friction would be to have government buy out homes in economically distressed areas at the old valuation. Sure, that's "not fair" to people who faced similar dilemmas in the past and didn't get that sort of help. But I'd prefer that the government be inconsistently helpful over consistently unhelpful.

[ticviking]

How is this different from the narratives of "welfare dependence" and "inter-generational poverty" advanced by republicans to advocate for deep cuts to urban welfare?

If there are more people in a city than it provides opportunity for it seems to me to be a similar cruelty to incentivize them to stay in one place because they have "roots" there or something equally vague.

[Spooky23]

Disability is more insidious than welfare.

States like disability because it is 100% federally funded and determinations are made by administrative law judges based on local standards. Temporary assistance (aka welfare), Medicaid, and other programs have a administrative and program cost sharing with the state and/or county.

Urban poverty has a lot of disability cases too. Welfare phases out in a few years and chronically poor folks end up labeled disabled.

I call it insidious because once you're on disability, there is an incentive to not try to re-enter the workforce. Most welfare recipients are off the rolls pretty quickly.

[opportune]

The main difference is that there are at least jobs in cities. They may not all be >$50k solid middle class jobs, but they are there. There are actually almost no jobs in these areas.

I would even agree with urban relocation if one city had a disproportionate number of people trapped in inter-generational poverty and another had extra jobs. I don't think "deep cuts" to urban welfare are ever the solution. I do think that the welfare system should prioritize setting its recipients up for success.

[jdmichal]

To answer the question, I would stop phrasing it in terms of jobs and instead in terms of productivity and imports / exports. These small communities require a good amount of imports, especially if they want something resembling a modern life with modern technology. They thereby need balancing exports to pay for them. There is very little opportunity for these people to do productive work and export it. So instead there is a reliance on government subsidy for the required imports.

This equation isn't typically true for urban areas, so there's no reason for people to move. (See Detroit for details on exceptions.)

[rfrank]

> The main difference is that there are at least jobs in cities.

There just aren't any houses, so their quality of life takes a greater hit than staying put in the form of huge commutes and dramatically increased cost of living. See service workers or teachers in San Francisco.

1. https://www.curbed.com/2017/6/20/15834514/rent-transportatio...

2. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/607957/the-unaffordable-u...

3. http://www.sfexaminer.com/mayor-lee-spend-44-million-sf-teac...

[akgerber]

This is often true on the coasts, but not particularly true in Appalachia or Appalachia-adjacent urban areas.

A basic house is $65k in Morgantown: https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Morgantown-WV/22898744...

And a nice house with a 10 minute funicular commute to Downtown Pittsburgh (the Paris of Appalachia) isn't too much more: https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/11363350_zpid/globalre...

And one can pay much less if one wishes: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2040-Lowrie-St-Pittsburgh...

Scarcity-driven housing costs are one of the biggest problems in a few coastal cities— but in much of the country, the problem is poverty.

[rfrank]

How many people in Appalachia can afford a down payment on any house? From a quick search of the addresses you linked, all are in places with high rates of property & violent crime. None of them seem like better options than being poor in your home town, and avoiding the myriad risks associated with big moves when you're a low earner who can't take any hits at all to monthly income without major sacrifices.

[thwarted]

While true, this is largely beside the point, and is addressable because it's mostly caused by politics. We don't need to have yet another discussion about Bay Area building constraints.

Additionally, there are other cities that have more opportunity than closed mining towns do. At the bare minimum the people need to relocate to someplace marginally better with ANY economic opportunity, because where they're at now has NO opportunity, not necessarily some place that is the top of economic opportunity.

[rfrank]

No, it's not beside the point, and it's actually a huge portion of the point. Those same constraints exist in the majority of major cities in America.

For people on the low end of the earning spectrum, the lack of tangible benefits for moving outside of a vague promise of better job prospects makes staying put a viable option. If you worked at McDonalds, would you move across the country and away from your entire social support system for a chance to commute two hours on public transit to work at Arbys? I wouldn't.

[hiram112]

Good point.

I know folks on the right screamed about the 'welfare queens' living on the tax payers' dime in the inner cities for generation after generation. In reality, this was a coded attack against blacks, and the majority of the claims were hyperbole.

But now the left has begun making the same mean-spirited attacks on uneducated whites from Appalachia, the Midwest, and the south.

Both types of stereotypes are annoying to hear repeated again and again.

[philipkglass]

I agree that people should remain compassionate. I understand why some people experience schadenfreude when it's rural Republican voters failing to "pull themselves up by their bootstraps" after hearing that advice given to urban Democratic voters, but tit-for-tat shaming is not humane. These people largely don't vote how I vote but they are still my fellow citizens. They have dependent children and elders. Some degree of suffering is probably unavoidable, because relocation is painful and many of these towns don't have long term futures. I don't want their residents to experience unnecessary suffering as some sort of lesson. We should try to help the people transition to better opportunities in other regions.

If the residents refuse that sort of help and instead demand that the government somehow make the old mines profitable again, then one may indulge in some exasperated eyeball-rolling and mockery, but I'm trying not to do that preemptively.

[meric]

Sorry, this is just Democratic voters tearing themselves apart. Appalachia used to be a democratic stronghold. These are people don't want to live on welfare generation after generation, and that's what they tried to vote for.

https://thinkprogress.org/appalachia-used-to-be-a-democratic...

[rayiner]

Shaming is an important part of society. It's how we incentivize positive behaviors and discourage negative ones.

[cmurf]

Like slut shaming, gay bashing, nerd bullying? Or maybe you'd like to better qualify or narrow your assertion? Because multiple generations did this, for exactly the reasons you state: it was good for society.

[Sohcahtoa82]

I have no sympathy for people that vote against their own interests.

If you're living off of government assistance and vote Republican while Republicans are constantly talking about stripping away said assistance programs, you absolutely deserve whatever happens to you. I have zero sympathy for you. You made your bed, now you get to sleep in it.

The only people I will have sympathy for are the children who have parents that are too dumb to see through the bullshit spewed by Fox, InfoWars, Breitbart, etc, and people that vote Democrat because they know better, but end up getting screwed by the Republicans that don't.

[addicted]

Except it's still the left that is expanding support and assistance for the "uneducated whites from Appalachia..." and the right that is taking it away.

This isn't a case of both sides do it at all.

[opportune]

I'm not making a mean spirited attack. In fact, I think in the long run moving would even be beneficial for these people

[Gargoyle]

I think in the long run it won't matter. For the most part, the jobs they could get in the cities are starting to vanish as well. In 10-20 years, the cities will have it even worse at the lower economic end. People might as well stay where they want to live.

This economic transition will eventually effect everyone. Everyone. These people are just at the front end of it.

[terravion]

Why do you think this? Can you provide some evidence? There was a lot of hand wringing during the recession about the end of work--"we're all losing our jobs to the robots," etc.--but it seems like there are as many jobs as ever and more good jobs. This is especially true from a global perspective. While many blue collar workers in the US are suffering from competition from foreign substitution, there are literally billions more people joining the middle class globally. It doesn't sound like the end of human work when you zoom out.

Also, if you compare the rate of job displacement right now with technology compared to say the early 20th century where a majority of the jobs that existed 50 years prior were "destroyed", then it doesn't seem like we're at much of an inflection point.

More likely, because we have development policies that make it hard/expensive to move, we're not putting people in the new jobs like we used to--this has down the line effects of slowing growth because the workers who are also consumers aren't spending what they could have.

[anigbrowl]

Of course, there aren't a whole lot of ethical ways to get them to move

Offering people a chunk of money works quite well. If they're likely to be on welfare anyway why not offer them a few years' worth up front, to reflect the costs of their dislocation?

American society is very accounting-driven and wants everything itemized and explained, which seems awfully wasteful to me. It would be more efficient (for the state) and more dignified (for the recipient) to just offer to buy them out for (say) $25,000.

[gozur88]

Usually what happens is people with extensive social networks and (now virtually worthless) property stay in the area, and their children leave for greener pastures. I have relatives in Western PA in a town that was built around oil and lumber. The oil and lumber are gone, and with them went all the jobs.

The people who live there now must be around 70 on average. At some point that town is just going to die and become unincorporated county land.

[maxerickson]

If there are really no jobs and the prospects for new industries are poor, offer relief by purchasing the houses.

Then tear them down.

[wmeredith]

Is there remote work these people could do using the internet?

[opportune]

Maybe mechanical turk, but that would probably only pay like $1-$5/hr at most if done at a regular rate (e.g. a 40 hour work week). Other than that, no. The vast majority of the US, including unemployed people in Appalachia, do not have the luxury of having such an in-demand skill that employers are willing to let them work remotely.

[phil248]

Traditionally in this country, people readily migrated for job opportunities. Maybe that's just a fairy tale, though it happened more than once in my family and with plenty of people I know. Perhaps people in resource extraction and one-factory towns no longer want to migrate for opportunity. Or maybe that's never been a majority inclination to begin with.

[scottLobster]

Not a fairy tale at all. In the 19th century De Tocqueville commented on how eager Americans were to sell land in pursuit of profit relative to Europeans at the time.

It seems that in the post-war era we settled on this notion that families should largely remain rooted and stable, and that became part of the modern "American Dream". I wonder if all of that is just a long-term backlash against the forced migrations of the Great Depression, made possible by the economic golden age we were going through at the time.

For my part I'm putting off buying a house precisely because it'll decrease my mobility.

[davidw]

IIRC, it was later than post WWII - more like the 70ies.

Or maybe you're right and it's a longer term trend:

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2017/02/american-mobility-has...

[scottLobster]

Interesting. So maybe it's a Baby Boomer phenomenon? Wish the data went back further, doesn't look like the Census started monitoring this before 1948. With some Googling it looks like federal home-ownership assistance efforts (either through providing subsidized housing or tax relief) started as far back as the Great Depression. Maybe people just wanted houses and prior to such programs it was unattainable for most?

Looks like a good topic for a book for anyone who has the time. I'm sure it's a confluence of several factors. :)

[maxerickson]

I wonder how much the hectic pace of logging in the US contributed to that difference.

http://geo.msu.edu/extra/geogmich/rr-logging.html

Land purchased for the timber would be a prime candidate for disposal once it was cleared.

[muninn_]

On the other hand, it's much more difficult to build lively, supportive, and necessary communities when everybody be moving all the time. Granted, obviously is the one source of income in a town dries up, you should probably move, but seeking out employment by hoping coast to coast does harm to our communities, especially when you aren't involved.

Unlike you, (and I don't mean this in a negative way, it's a complicated discussion) I actually did the opposite and committed myself to the city I currently reside in, less there are 0 economic opportunities to be had, and I volunteer and participate in my community and get to know people. It's easier to build strong communities when you at least know the other people in your condo building.

[scottLobster]

Yeah just depends on your goals/place in life. I imagine once kids come along I'll start growing more roots, but for now my focus is on my fiancée's and mine careers. And right now I'm at the best software development job that doesn't require a 1-hour commute. So while I could chase pay-grades for the next 30 years and make a decent run of things (plenty of my coworkers have), I kinda see that as a path to career mediocrity.

I agree that moving around makes developing strong ties tough. Once I get further along I'll reconsider taking my foot off the gas a little. My standard is essentially: "If I was trying to convince my kid to go into engineering, would I use my job as an example to aspire towards?" Right now, while I'm grateful for my job and the work certainly isn't bad, the answer is no.

[nandemo]

There was a post on HN on US internal migration patterns a while ago. IIRC migration rates have decreased, but it's a fairly recent phenomenon (as in 1990s not 1950s).

[philipkglass]

My parents relocated cities 4 times before retirement to pursue job opportunities. Out of my 9 aunts and uncles, only one worked all their life in the same town where they grew up. I've lived in three different counties in my adult life. The loss of social ties was hard when we moved during my childhood; I can understand why families would prefer to stay put. But I think that long-term unemployment or underemployment would be even harder on people.

[acchow]

Evidently, many of these people have decided it isn't harder.

[maxxxxx]

When I grew up in Germany there was this stereotype that Americans move around a lot for jobs. Industry leaders often put this up as an example for Germans who at that time didn't want to move that much.

So I think there is something to this. Moving around probably got much harder due to rising real estate prices.

[tropo]

Moving is harder because property taxes will suddenly reset to much higher values. Long-term owners are partly protected from tax increases.

We also have high transaction costs for homes. Considering both sides of the transaction, something like 10% of the home's value is eaten up by various fees.

So nobody can afford to move. BTW, this is a huge source of our traffic problems, the other being school districts.

[WalterBright]

It's not a fairy tale. California became a populous state due to the gold rush.

[dragonwriter]

And, more recently (1930s-1940s) got a got a significant (around 5-10%) population boost due to Dust Bowl-driven econonic migration.

[mturmon]

...and this is reflected in the state motto, "Eureka" -- I found it, the it being gold.

[sp332]

That doesn't explain the ghost towns around the mines.

[Gargoyle]

It does. People migrated there when there was opportunity and migrated elsewhere when there were better opportunities elsewhere.

[acchow]

Any studies on how effective it would be for the government to subsidize moves?

[pasbesoin]

Upper Peninsula of Michigan. There's still copper. It just couldn't compete with the open pit mines, overseas, etc., at subsequently depressed prices.

Now that copper prices have risen, in recent years (not sure about at the moment), there's been intermittent talk of starting some of the UP mining back up.

Probably won't happen -- my guess. Too much investment, given current global volatility. And the relevant people are largely gone.

More recently, foreign paper products production has been inflicting a further hit. The local town near where I stay lost its paper mill (for paperboard products) a few years ago. As one example.

[LeifCarrotson]

Lower peninsula too, though for a slightly different reason: Detroit, Flint, etc. have become ghost towns as automotive manufacturing has moved out and automated.

It's not a natural resource, but if an industry moves then it, too, leaves people behind. And when it's a ghost city not a ghost town, it can take a long time to realize the money is gone, and it can leave a lot of people in the lurch.

[nemo44x]

Don't forget those logging towns in the Pacific Northwest were able to luckily benefit from global trade expansion. Many of those cities became port towns creating a lot of opportunity and wealth where many other places suffered. Factor in they haven't had to deal with the USA's past like places in the Midwest and Appalachia. They're living high on the hog today by simple luck.

You don't just reinvent the economy and deal with the baggage of your past (due to ancestors and norms of the time but have effects today) overnight. I mean, what can they do? They won't fall into the lap of becoming a port town with extreme growth due to the proliferation of global trade.

[yourapostasy]

Article covering interesting re-purposing of old mines [1].

If you believe in extinction-level global climate change, then another possibility is raised: use the mines as the starting point of new Civil Defense shelters. Except instead of built against nuclear fallout, they are for housing the tens of millions we hope survive and make it to them when our species' inaction enables extreme consequences of catastrophic weather changes. This puts the entire local economies back to work at underground construction, renewing and reinforcing the mines to much higher civil engineering standards, and building them out with dormitories, underground farms, cisterns, etc., for long-term stays. These would be multi-decade projects, and gives us a chance to offer the jobs with strings attached to gradually move out all but a skeleton crew as the build-outs gradually taper off. At best, a massive infrastructure project to re-establish our Civil Defense, that we re-purpose in a few decades as underground business parks and cheap residences. At worst, we actually need to use them if climate change causes mass crop failures or the like.

[1] http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/striking-paydirt-innovative-n...

[francisofascii]

Right. For people in Greene county, the obvious answer is transitioning to Pittsburgh, which is only 60 miles away, doing decent economically and still affordable.

[cmurf]

I think it comes down to how we're educated in a very monolithic way still, with the idea of "a job" and "a career" and "a path". It's very much like all eggs in one basket, no diversification investing to me.

Students need to learn basic things, but that includes what is diversification, adaptation, how to learn, how to self-learn, and continuously integrate.

Because they don't learn this, there's a coal worker that only understands that task, and thinks it's tragic and someone's fault when it goes away. "I can't do anything else. Coal is all I know." And then they lobby and vote to protect specific job tasks, rather than some sense of a right to earn a living by contributing to society. Nope - it's all about 'the job'.

Imagine if more specialized jobs were suddenly easily automated, like say accounting. Uh ok that's a lot of people displaced from a job, 1.3 million in accounting an auditing. If even 25% were obsolete that's more than all of coal.

[prawn]

How much would these people lose out? Let's say they bought property there during a boom, and now face having to give it up at a huge discount (if they're even able to sell), before buying in a more expensive regional centre or big city.

With time, the situation only gets worse - their property price is driven down as the demand drops, they can't justify renovating, house falls into disrepair, etc.

If the settlements are disparate, rail links would be too expensive, and are there enough remote jobs that people in these situations could be trained for?

[acchow]

How do other countries deal with this? Or do they have the same problem of local communities extracting federal subsidies for their unsustainable, selfish, local desires?

[clock_tower]

The latter, at least in Norway -- small settlements propped up by government spending.

http://www.idlewords.com/2010/07/mission_burfjord.htm

Search for "The social center of Burfjord" and read that paragraph and the next. Something like this might be necessary if the US government wants to keep Appalachia populated; I genuinely don't know if I'd support that goal or be indifferent to it.

[hannob]

I know the situation in east Germany a bit. The "solution" is complete denial.

The discussions I observed happen in a way that I can hardly describe otherwise than that coal is some kind of replacement religion for those areas. For a long time (and for some even today) talking about anything beyond coal was considered some form of heresy. By now denial gets increasingly hard, because except one minor expansion all plans for further mines have been cancelled.

[maxxxxx]

They do. But other countries are often not as concentrated as the US is becoming.

[acchow]

concentrated in terms of what?