Very compelling. Without staking the hedge fund doesn't have any knowledge of how confident you are in your estimates. If you can put the value of a coin up against your confidence estimates then you are giving that information in a very real and binding way.
Do you have another way data scientists can give estimates of their model's ability to do better than chance and be held accountable for that estimate? Additional prize pool based on giving good reliability estimates seems like an excellent way to do it.
The tokens are not the value of the numerai fund itself. They are merely a tool for the staking process.
Yes...I remember a few years ago, with one of the algorithm testing sites, a group basically just submitted 20-30 pseudo-random predictions. One of them ended up winning, but it wasn't like the team actually had a useful algorithm, they were just playing the system because betting was free.
Do you have another way data scientists can give estimates of their model's ability to do better than chance and be held accountable for that estimate? Additional prize pool based on giving good reliability estimates seems like an excellent way to do it.
The tokens are not the value of the numerai fund itself. They are merely a tool for the staking process.