[wpietri]

Yeah.

It's really easy to look back and say, "I could have been rich!" But when I catch myself doing that, I try to look at the basket of equivalent choices at the time. I'm sure there were a zillion random guys in weird houses proposing schemes they thought were brilliant.

It's the same thing with startups. There are a million people who think they'll be the next Jobs, the next Zuckerberg. Approximately one of them is right. The people who come up with that guy will, exactly as you say, decide that they're geniuses, not just lucky.

[Confusion]

  I try to look at the basket of equivalent choices at the time

That's exactly what you must do.