[shardo]

I think it's the author's fault for switching between probabilities and odds and the readers for not recognizing the switch.

"Thus A’s chance of being condemned remains twice that of being pardoned."

When he says this, he is talking of odds of 2:1 and therefore, the probability of not being condemned is 1/1+2 = 1/3

Also when he says "Because, unlike in Monty Hall, the intuitive judgment is the correct one in Mosteller’s puzzle." He means the intuitive judgment that 1/2 is incorrect.

I was extremely confused the first 2-3 times I read it and kept trying to understand the author's viewpoint because everything other than these two statement seemed to make sense. At least I wasn't the only one.