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While I broadly agree that things don't usually change how we expect, I do think the near future could invert that somewhat. If we look at you examples of failed predictions:
> domed cities, flying cars, orbital space resorts, mile-high towers connected by floating trains, robotic servants, and the such
we notice that the real reason none of these exist is because they are all essentially impossible to achieve with our current technology. However, robotic servants are partially already here. We can verbally ask a device to play a certain song or order us some loo roll, and it works. We have autonomous cars that can, reasonably safely, drive us wherever we want to go. Elon Musk's new factory is, reportedly, almost entirely automated. And as most of this progress is recent, it seems likely that it will continue to advance for a while. I will agree that there is significant friction against changes in society, which slow down adoption of new tech, but consider that robots in the context we are discussing are not a consumer good, they are a replacement for employees. So perhaps the most relevant question that will drive or stall adoption is: Is a robot more cost-effective than a human. I also think watching the extent to which self-driving cars are adopted by delivery/freight/taxi companies, and the fallout from that, will be a fascinating (maybe terrifying) glimpse into that future. |
The problem is that extrapolation is fundamentally hard.