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by archagon 3299 days ago
To me, the fundamental question remains this: what platform is the next web browser, BitTorrent, or BitCoin going to be invented on?

I posit that while the iPad remains a closed platform, it will never become the computer of the future, no matter how many pro features Apple adds. In a few years, I expect Apple pundits to be making the same "how were we so wrong on the iPad" articles that they were in 2016.

No doubt, the hardware here is certainly exciting. Many people can make full use of it for their careers. But it won't send ripples through the fabric of society like the humble PC does every 5-10 years.

2 comments

I would very, very, very much argue that the "computer of the future" this past decade has been the smartphone. It's undeniable how much of an impact this shift has made in people's daily life in the last decade — hell, their widespread adoption paved the way for several multi-billion-dollar companies and launched entire industries.

Not a single one of these apps was primarily developed on the phone itself.

Does it matter if a platform does the inventing? The web browser was invented on a NeXT Cube but that didn't limit its eventual use.
No, I don't think that matters. However, I see the walled garden as a much bigger issue. Apple wouldn't let a new, disruptive technology along the lines of browsers/bittorrent/bitcoin into its App Store unless it already had widespread adoption. If most people replace their open PCs with closed phones or tablets, that's never going to happen. It's a giant bollard in the path of technological progress.

Fortunately, it looks like the open-ish Android model is winning out. Maybe Apple will change their mind at some point.

VisiCalc and Lotus 1-2-3 are other excellent examples.

Simple spreadsheets were available everywhere, while tools like Mathematica and Quantrix were only available on NeXT.

Those powerful system libraries from NeXTStep were key, and they're still an advantage today,