[pbsd]

For what it's worth, BLAKE2 has the original number of rounds of BLAKE: 12 and 10. It was increased to 16 and 14 before the 3rd round of the competition, because BLAKE was fast enough that increasing the round numbers like this would still make it sufficient fast---and, indeed, the faster function in the 3rd round still---and the most conservative function of the bunch.

Keccak began with 18 rounds. It increased to 24 rounds on the 2nd round after some largely irrelevant distinguishers were found. You can see that K12 is cutting it really close, as the 256-bit variant adds two rounds for added safety, in addition to the reduced control over the state with the larger capacity.

I can imagine ~12-round Keccak being "broken" in my lifetime, as well as ~8-round BLAKE2. I cannot imagine the full version of either being ever broken.