[throwaway99951]

>No, you're ignoring the case where they might have defaulted.

How on earth do you know what I'm ignoring? I most certainly accounted for the fact that the companies could default.

>The housing market oftentimes works in cycles and changes with time. In my life I've watched the neighborhood I grew up in go from highly desirable to highly undesirable and now it's back to being desirable again. 30 year mortgage is enough time to see wild swings in technology, the economy, industry, and plenty else.

And yet, the long term real rates of return are positive (but small). You have your strategy, I have mine.

[creepydata]

I'm not sharing any sort of "strategy," (strategy for what?) I'm simply pointing out you can't predict the future, you can only make educated guesses.