[hsod]

> In the case of hacking, our assessment must include a notion of how easy it would be for a nation or group to be falsely implicated.

> Separately, there must be a discussion of motive apart from specific evidence. But what we're seeing is a blurring together of various tiny pieces of data, analysis, guesswork, etc., into a narrative.

Do you believe that the intelligence community has failed to consider these fairly obvious principles when producing their reports?

It seems you've constructed a belief system by which you can never be convinced of Russia's involvement. This is what I was getting at with my question above (which you didn't really answer).

[mladenkovacevic]

And you've constructed a belief system that we better believe anything that comes out of the NSA about adversaries of the US because well, I feel the NSA is really competent and what else are we supposed to believe anyways.

My belief system isn't convincing me that Russians didn't hack the election system, or that they aren't capable of it. Just that this particular document is not the smoking gun.

[hsod]

I never said it was a smoking gun. I said it was evidence.

[shard972]

What If i told you in that report in which "17 agencies all agreed that Russia did it", one agency only had moderate confidence (50%~ chance) and it was the NSA.

[grandalf]

> has failed to consider these fairly obvious principles

No, but I think that those spreading these kinds of reports are intentionally masking the way that they are meant to be used in intelligence circles. This happened during the buildup to the Iraq war also.

My point is that the reports make those leaps intentionally in order to support higher order analysis. They are not meant to be taken as a distillation of all of the available intel.

> you can never be convinced of Russia's involvement

Not at all. But your use of the word "involvement" is a great example of insinuation. What does "involvement" mean in this case? I'll take a stab at it:

- Russia is a geopolitical adversary to the US (check)

- Russia and the US are engaged in a proxy war on several fronts and have been for decades (check)

- Russia and the US both undertake various mischief campaigns against each other and have since the cold war (check)

- Russia and the US both have at least two distinct offensive and defensive capabilities... one being cyber "warfare" and another being cyber "mischief". (check and check)

I agree on all of the above. I think many of the people who are up in arms about the Russia story did not believe the above until quite recently, yet it has been the case for a long time.

The appropriate analysis is to consider whether Russia actually thought it would impact the outcome of the US election, or if it intended to merely create mischief and chaos/mistrust. Clearly the latter is true per the history between the two nations and is consistent with the ongoing mischief campaign.

A deliberate effort to hack election machines, trigger power failures in hospitals, or any variety of more severe attacks crosses the line from "cyber mischief" into "cyber warfare".

What we're seeing is the anti-Russia hawks seizing upon the mischief and trying to make it seem like a cause for war. Don't forget that many have been vehemently trying to get the US to use force against Russia for quite some time.

Thus, the key evidence that is needed to escalate Russia's "involvement" from routine mischief and turn it into something akin to "warfare" is the hard evidence of intent to harm infrastructure.

While spear phishing voting machine companies may signal intent to conduct a Stuxnet style attack on US electronic voting machines, is spear phishing really a nation-state level attack approach?

Clearly, unless "The Russians" had far better predictive models than American statisticians, it would have been utterly foolish to undertake an attack that would personally tick off the sure-thing presidential candidate.

So I think that proof entails both a clear delineation of what sort of behavior/mischief is actually abnormal or asymmetric, and the notion of what constitutes proof of intent to escalate.

[shard972]

One thing I find weird about people who are obsessed with the Russia scandal is that they seem to believe that if "involvement" is proven, it's over for the trump administration.

I really don't understand that at all because if we want to get real, the OPM china hack was bigger than most of the things being alleged at the moment by stealing the database of everyone with a security clearance and yet, not a peep from anybody.

It would seem if you were consistent about cyber threats, these people yelling for sanctions on Russia should be yelling for sanctions on China as well.