| Saudi here; It's too early to tell. This is not the first schism in the GCC involving Qatar, but it's the one that's amped up the fastest. There's a lot of dynamics involved here both overt and those left unsaid. 1: The possibility of a Qatar-Iran rapprochement. I don't think it was ever likely but rather was a political manouver by Qatar that got out of hand, particularly after Trump's very recent visit and his attitudes towards the Iran deal. The reason why this would be a big deal is not regional power flexing or the usual cross-gulf shitslinging, but rather that Qatar worries about being overshadowed in political affairs by Saudi, and Saudi worrying about the possibility of increasing influence of Iran within the GCC and OPEC. The irony, of course, is that the fear of GCC disintegration by Iran sowing disunity might cause disintegration... 2: The Muslim Brotherhood. Despite generally aligned political and theological views, UAE+Saudi are really at odds here. They views the MB as a populist force that aims to undermine the government and to covertly back more extreme Islamist factions in pursuit of that("enemy of my enemy...), and to create parallel structures in governments to advance their cause. Qatar views them as a useful tool, giving them somewhat safe harbor and the inclination of AlJazeera, one of the region's strongest media conglomerates. This came in useful in Libya and for relations with the Palestinian Authority and Turkey, but it can backfire quickly. 3: The possibility of normalization of relations with Israel. Probably more of a PR jab than a real issue, but it's one that's somewhat salient for the general public. What would all this amount to? Probably not much, you'll notice that Kuwait is absent from that list and the likely reason is that they're being used as a backchannel. This altercation has been remarkably public in the popular media here (despite not being popular per se) so odds are all sides want this to be over ASAP. |