[iamacynic]

do you think your analysis applies to states like texas, virginia, arizona, north carolina, georgia, utah, etc? even the in-between states such as colorado and florida were doing fine before the blue takeover of 2005+.

i've been to all of these places in the last 10 years and they're all doing more than fine.

it seems to me only a handful of states over-whelmingly tied to particularly depressed sectors of the economy are the ones losing their people and tax revenue. and a lot of those were blue states just 5 years ago!

[tmh79]

I would limit my "expertise" to rustbelt/midwestern areas, but from what I've seen in both data and experience, things tend to be more correlated with overall density metrics than specific location, and there are a lot of microscale effects. For instance, many ambitious people in the midwest are relocating from [small town they grew up in] to [regional center], like moving from avondale MI to Grand Rapids MI. The macro effects of outmigration from MI en mass show little info, but on a micro scale, people are leaving their smaller counties and moving to more dense ones. Over time, smaller regional centers like Grand Rapids grow, but the 200 miles of 'small town America' surrounding it grow older, more disconnected, less healthy, and less educated.

[kenhwang]

Interesting you picked those states, of those states, all but North Carolina have been becoming bluer. Using 2012 vs 2016 presidential margin of victory, with blueness being positive, Texas went −15.78% to -9.00%, Virginia went 3.87% to 5.32%, Arizona went −9.06% to -3.55%, North Carolina went −2.04% to -3.66%, Georgia went −7.82% to -5.13%, Utah went −48.04% to -18.08%.

I think you can interpret that as, prosperity leads to bluer policies, or bluer policies causes prosperity, or possible a little of both.

[xienze]

Maybe do a comparison next time there's a more traditional Republican candidate running to get a better idea of how much bluer a state is becoming.

Or compare midterms. Presidential elections can be wonky. Surely you don't think Wisconsin has made a dramatic red shift based on 2012 vs 2016, do you?

[kenhwang]

Considering for gubernatorial it went 53-45 blue in 2006, to 52-46 red in 2010, to 53-46 red in 2012 during the recall, and back to at 52-47 red in 2014; yes, I do think Wisconsin swung redder as a whole.

[iamacynic]

haha, except you left out all the states that don't adhere to your hypothesis, like the ones that won the presidential election in 2016. kind of a big oversight.