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by tezka 3304 days ago
Even though I am sympathetic to the idea of Universal income, the fact the Iran's economy experienced inflation as high as 45% the rapid rise of which correlates closely with the start of this program[1], should make this a worrisome rather than promising case study.

[1] https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/iran-inflation-...
3 comments
a-priori 3304 days ago
That's more attributable to the sanctions placed on Iran in 2010, in response to their nuclear program, which led to shortages and price surges.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Counci... http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/02/world/middleeast/irans-dou...

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notahacker 3304 days ago
The inflation coincided with the introduction of stricter US sanctions, which also coincided with this study's finding that over that same winter poor people who'd just seen prices rise (and lost massive food/fuel subsidies the program replaced) didn't rush to quit their jobs in the face of a more uncertain future. Even Basic Income campaign groups seem to accept that the program helped accelerate the inflation[1] but I'd be hesitant to draw any strong conclusions about BI - good or bad - from the period over which Iran first introduced it. Longer term studies might be a little more interesting if they exist, but there are plenty of other secular trends in the Iranian economy.

An even bigger issue for it as a case study might be the present Iranian government's keenness to phase the program out.

[1]http://basicincome.org/news/2012/05/opinion-irans-citizens-i...

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intopieces 3304 days ago
It also correlates closely to the increase in banking sanctions, which were enacted very close to the spike in that graph.

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/04/world/middleeast/us-adds-...

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tezka 3304 days ago
sure, sanctions may very well be one of the factors causing such high inflation levels (although I am hesitant to say that they completely explain away the massive increase in the money supply. FWIW, according to IMF, in 2008 Iran's M1 base has been around $70 billion[1]. Giving a population of over 75M a $1.5 * 365 does nicely increase that base by around 50%). My main main point however was not to claim that the UBI program caused the inflation, rather to challenge the reliability of the main claim of the report as to the change the UBI makes to people's working behavior. Under such high inflation, whatever the cause, people need to work more, rather than less, to make ends meet, so comparing their behavior to pre-inflation periods is just bad science.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Bank_of_the_Islamic_Re...

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Retric 3304 days ago
Handing out money every month means it's much closer to 1.5 * 30 than 1.5 * 365.
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tezka 3304 days ago
The article says $1.5 a day IIANM
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