[thriftwy]

This reminds me how SF writers were expecting that people will colonize other planets, 50 years ago.

We'll somehow go all the way over there and find a way to live in those hostile conditions.

Guess what, fast forward, people don't just want to stay on Earth, but will also prefer SF proper, Manhattan and/or Paris within 20 arrondissements.

Even smaller cities are losing population. I guess that Spengler's narrative lives on.

[tlrobinson]

Took me a second to figure out your first use of "SF" was "science fiction" and the second was "San Francisco"

[aqzman]

I'm glad I wasn't the only one. I was very confused for a moment after reading that comment. Never seen the acronym "SF" used for science fiction before.

[__s]

https://google.com/search?q=SF+writer doesn't list writers from San Francico

SF straight in the title of https://www.amazon.com/Other-Worlds-SF-Human-Imagination/dp/...

SF also serves to include both 'science fiction' and 'speculative fiction' but that's a whole other debate

[ptaipale]

I've seen it a lot, and the first use of SF was naturally right to me. That's why the second one was so confusing.

[JCharante]

It took you for me to realize that op didn't mean San Francisco. It made sense for me either way.

[Robotbeat]

A lot of people /don't/ want to stay on Earth.

(And people also want to go to Antarctica... There are multiple "colonies" there, by Chile and Argentina, thousands live there in the summer, and about a thousand people winter over there, and tens of thousands of tourists travel there annually... All this in a place that is illegal to mine, illegal to claim nationally, and even illegal to build new permanent structures by international treaty, thus essentially illegal to build a city or anything like a real economy, which would require mining at least for gravel.)

The interesting thing about people is that there are many different kinds with many different motivations.

Although I do suspect that space settlements will be even more urbanized and centralized than Earth cities. The extra costs associated with living in space are reduced by living in larger settlements/cities (think surface area to volume ratio), and just like on Earth, economic productivity will increase with increasing population density.

[vacri]

I think most people who want to live off-planet have a very romanticised notion of what that entails. Mars isn't going to be terraformed within our lifetimes, even if it was possible. Living on Mars = living permanently in a tunnel. And if you don't get along with the small community you'll be living with, you'll be screwed. And if you don't like living a fairly regimented lifestyle, you'll be screwed as well; there'll be no equivalent of "let's see what cafes are down this alleyway!".

I think far more people actually want a 'holiday' off-planet, than actually live off-planet.

[Robotbeat]

As far as the latter point, that's fine & perhaps expected. That's why we need to make transport cheap enough so people can come and go.

I know what it's like to live life in a tunnel. That's the Twin Cities in Minnesota during the winter. Minnesota is where the modern indoor shopping mall was invented. The entire downtown of Minneapolis is still walkable in the middle of the winter because all the buildings are connected by temperature controlled skyways and tunnels. No reason you can't see what cafes are in the next building or indoor level.

[RugnirViking]

> let's see what cafes are down this alleyway > And if you don't get along with the small community you'll be living with

You just described rural life in some places pretty much

> living permanently in a tunnel

Adding that one makes it more like living on a submarine or large boat.

Which while unpleasant prospect for many people, there are those who enjoy and/or even prefer it to normal life

[pilsetnieks]

Not all people. No one expects everyone to drop everything and move to Mars but there will be some pioneer types who would probably want that kind of endeavor. If comfort was everything, people would have remained in Africa.

[ptaipale]

Or how Asimov's "The Caves of Steel", from 1953, was set on an Earth of 3000 years from now, and that was overpopulated, horribly full of people, living on contiguous, adjoining underground cities covering entire continents. And had 8 billion people (which we are actually about to reach in about 7 years from now, somewhere around 2024).

[Spooky23]

I haven't met many people who have knowledge beyond watching Friends reruns who actually want to live in Manhattan.

The highest population growth places in the US are places like Dallas, TX and Greenville, SC. That's been the case for a long time. NYC and SFO are treading water and are at risk as their economies have de-diversified over the last 40 years.

[ajmurmann]

I'm curious how improved telepresence will change the desire/need to live in major metro areas.

[thriftwy]

...or basic income.

[ajmurmann]

I could see that that might have an impact as well. It will be interesting to see to what degree people move to metro areas because that's where the jobs are and to what degree they move there because it's a more interesting place to live. While I'd love to have a little more space and pay less for housing I'd get pretty depressed living outside a metro area. If that's what I wanted I could move back to the visit where my parents live, live in their second house or in-law unit and live off a few hours months of remote consulting work. Curious to see how that's the case for others.

[bbcbasic]

> Guess what, fast forward, people don't just want to stay on Earth, but will also prefer SF proper, Manhattan and/or Paris within 20 arrondissements.

Yet people live on the ISS, where there are no fancy cafes. How do you explain that?

[vacri]

They return home after a brief period.

[brianwawok]

I think Chicago is the only big city to lose people in the US in the last 10 years.

[adamgray]

A lot of Chicago's population loss is on the South Side where violence is high. Also the elimination of the projects has moved a lot of Section 8 housing to the suburbs, as it gives low income families a chance at a better life in a less dire situation. Investment in new infrastructure is at an all time high in the Loop / North / West sides. Young people are moving out the suburbs and into the core. Chicago's population isn't increasing at the rate of places like Houston because of the lack of annexation, the suburbs in Cook County generally don't want to join the city.

[goodcanadian]

Detroit has lost something like 60% of its population since 1950 . . . though it might be growing again, now.

[meric]

It's not a big city, anymore.

[maxerickson]

It's just a ridiculously massive urban area spanning about 1.5 counties.

I guess you can say it isn't highly populated anymore.