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I'm developing a theory that America's thoughts on what technology is capable of swings wildly between two poles (possibly with every generation?): A strong luddite streak that pooh-pooh's technology, followed by a ridiculous fantasy that technology can do everything. We're firmly entrenched in cycle "B" right now; their Martian colonies is our true AI. We think everything is just around the corner because so much has changed over the last few decades, without realizing that those changes have only come in certain areas, while the rest of the technical world is proceeding along at a much slower, more methodical pace. I saw an ELI5 post the other day from someone on Reddit asking what air traffic controllers did, that software couldn't do better. I actually had to sit for a moment and ponder the person (almost certainly a youth, admittedly) who thinks we're already at the point on the futurism curve where the task of safely coordinating air (or any!) traffic is better done by a computer than a person. They just couldn't wrap their heads around the idea that a group of trained people, in 2017, with advanced software and visualization tools at their disposal, might be better at that than a computer acting on its own. The example fits elegantly because I do think AR is in our future (and our present) and I'm absolutely thrilled about what it's going to bring to the world. But the idea that we're going to replace (waste) the meat computer in our heads - let alone that we can - within the next few... What, years? Decades? Anything in that timeline seems ridiculous to me, and not because I can't imagine such an incredible and future, but because I know how the technology works, I know how far away it is from replacing (not augmenting, which again is today and I think has a rich future ahead of it) human brains and senses. Yes, automation is going to replace all our jobs, and also the sun is going to burn up someday. We need to prepare for both - arguably the former more adroitly than the latter - at a pace that makes sense both for humanity today and humanity in the future. |