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by tedsanders
3317 days ago
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One aspect of qualification is domain knowledge, which experts certainly have. Another aspect of qualification is calibration, which can only be proved & adjusted over time with a track record. A number of academic studies of prediction markets and other forecasting systems have shown that well-calibrated non-experts, with no skin in the game, often do better than actual experts, who often have poor track records as a result of incentives (or selection) to hype and extremize.[1] Philip Tetlock has written on this topic for years. Two of his books are Expert Political Judgment and Superforecasting. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project Edit: So to directly answer your question, rather than AI experts, I'd prefer technology experts (AI or otherwise) with a track record of well-calibrated predictions. |
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