[pascalchristian]

I agree with Protege that this is an apple to orange comparison. The exact hedge fund is not specified, it could probably invest in anything other than most US large caps represented in S&P500. Heck, it could probably consists of Chinese index funds, which would definitely outperform the S&P if the US spirals into an economic crisis within the 10 years or so.

[MichaelSalib]

If the US spirals into an economic crisis, I don't see how China could avoid one. China's economy relies on US demand; if Americans aren't buying Chinese goods, then Chinese factories are closing and Chinese exports will crumble. I don't think anyone knows how to raise non-US or internal Chinese demand for Chinese goods fast enough to compensate for a major shock to the US economy.

[jbooth]

The exact terms were listed as confidential between the parties -- I'd imagine they negotiated something that seemed fair to both of them.

The larger point of the wager should transcend the specifics, of course.