[waveman]

http://seykota.com - not what you think you are after, but very useful regardless.

Also http://www.trendfollowing.com/

Trading is very hard. Markets are efficient at a first approximation and where they are not efficient, simple arbitrages do not exist. You are up against smart, well capitalized people. Once you find an edge your irrational brain cuts in.

Books: "Investing by the numbers" by Jarrod Wilcox. "Trend Following" by Covel. "The only three questions that count" by Fisher. And of course the "[Stock]Market Wizards" books. Typically the top traders seem to have read a couple of hundred books on the topic and have done thousands of hours of research.

Your assumption that you will lose at first it probably right. But that's better than winning at first, which is likely to falsely convince you that you're a genius.

Beware the following which can look like skill for a while. 1. Randomness (temporary luck) 2. Excessive Leverage (-> gambler's ruin) 3. Selling insurance without realizing it eg selling out of the money options.