[Bluestrike2]

That's not at all what he's saying. To judge the efficacy of a deterrent, you need to be able to identify the expected payment rate in the absence of said deterrent. The problem with that is that identifying the difference is incredibly difficult. If not damned near impossible.

That said, I'd question the deterrent effect. Per the article, nearly 40 percent of 'recovered' borrowers default within the next three years. Combined with paying debt collectors "nearly 40 times what they bring in," it seems as if there's a measurable problem with the current approach. But is that a problem with current recovery efforts, or merely a symptom of a larger issue? Like with most things student loan-related, there are no easy answers here.