[imcoconut]

But if the person who called all 20 flips properly is a math PHD who discovered the Chern–Simons secondary characteristic classes of 3-manifolds which has had a profound effect on modern physics[0] - I might think they've figured out some deep shit about coin tossing.

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Harris_Simons#Academic_a...

[soVeryTired]

I know who Jim Simons is. But that sounds like an argument from authority to me.

[imcoconut]

I was citing in case anyone reading was unaware of his mathematical chops.

That's a fair point. I'm not one for argument by authority.

My point with his discovery is that he's empirically demonstrated a capability of uncovering understanding and deep mathematical relationships, which have practical implications. The PHD part is less relevant.

In my opinion, this information decreases the probability that rentech has been consistently outperforming on the basis of pure luck. By how much, though, I can't say.