[return0]

This would require a big plunge in the greek economy that people are not willing to take. To be able to recover swiftly from such a crash, the greek economy would have to switch from a very inflexible and sclerotic one (that it is now) to an adaptible, flexible and liberal one. The demographics of Greece do not support such swift action - greece is aging rapidly and the brain drain has gotten really intense. With regards to trade, greece probably benefits from things like e.g. the common agricultural policy more than it loses through restrictions. There is little support for grexit, because of a) the rhetoric and FUD from almost all political parties (including the pro-euro syriza) and EU and b) because there is not enough consensus on the side of the people to go through what would amount to a revolution.

[cinquemb]

The thing is, Greece, IMO, doesn't even need to leave the EU, they just need leverage (in the same way Turkey's leverage is in flooding the EU with more refugees), and they can get leverage in trade by ignoring EU diktats that stipulate what goods they can import in practice (while officially denying everything). International traders would pay a slight premium to be able to have land access to the EU from shipping. Hell, I personally know a couple of traders in SE asia who would pay tens of thousands of dollars to do so.

But I guess the consensus will be in favor of trying continue to squeeze blood from stone until there is none left. And when it gets that far, compared to the threat of cheaper citric acid, steal, etc imports hurting "blessed" EU suppliers, you'll have surplus kalashnikov's coming in from the ME, which I guess is even more profitable for traders ;)

[return0]

> ignoring EU diktats

yeah no, that would be equivalent to being kicked out the EU. Greece tried to use some leverage with refugees and got some money in return but that's all. Also, COSCO has already acquired the port of piraeus so there is an asian connection already.

[cinquemb]

>yeah no, that would be equivalent to being kicked out the EU.

Has there actually been any country that's been and/or in the process of being kicked out the EU (besides threats wielded in media and talked up for ad-views)?

How do you reconcile them willing to kick out Greece but trying to put a multi tens of billion euro bill on the UK for leaving the EU? Would Greece be demanded to pay a similar bill when kicked out and actually pay such? (We already know the ability for them to pay such a bill).

What about all the northern countries running a surplus to Greece, what would happen to those companies special positions due the trade restrictions in their favor?

I really doubt the folks in Brussels want at situation like that to happen, nor do I see them having absolute control over what comes in from customs, in every country, much less in any one in particular.

>Also, COSCO has already acquired the port of piraeus so there is an asian connection already.

Not really sure how to interpret what you mean by "asian connection". So having one state related shipping company from China, now satisfies all the demand for people trying to import into Europe from all over asia, as if every trader must some how just use that port/company? Besides, the issue isn't technically with shipping things, its actually having it cleared to leave the port to the buyer with the right paperwork.