[unityByFreedom]

Neither of us can predict the future with certainty.

Russia could keep taking non-NATO land, while new nations seek admission to NATO. At some point, Russia could dispute the status of a new-NATO member claiming they already held that territory or some such.

You can't know what increased tensions will lead to. Bay of Pigs and the cold war were very real. Tensions in the South China Sea and North Korea are real. The fondness that the US president holds for murderous conservative leaders, and his disdain for left-leaning leaders, are real.

I would mention the pact the UK signed with Poland days before Germany decided to invade anyway, however, you claim the circumstances are different now and that history is irrelevant. I'd say ignoring history is foolish.