[ct4ul4u]

I didn't say that CAPM precisely modeled the market. I said that individual investors can't beat CAPM, meaning they can't beat the reward/risk relationship predicted by the model.

The model predicts that you can get higher returns by accepting greater variance on those returns. Even at moderate risk levels, it's easy to predict that some investors will happen to get the kind of returns you describe. Were your returns a result of your agency? Who can say.

Let's sidestep the issue of luck. I don't believe it is likely that your prior returns are a meaningful indicator of your future returns. But I could be wrong.

For a given asset, (Jensen's) Alpha is usually quite small compared to total return. How do you isolate the Alpha you identify?