[rsync]

"Instead, Billy Beane identified what components led to team success, then found which of those the market doesn't pay for. Then he got those guys."

Let me ask you - as I am not a baseball nerd - if there is any counter-argument to the BillyBeane/Moneyball/WAR movement ?

I don't mean knee-jerk, irrational objections - but real, reasoned counter-hypotheses ?

[kmonsen]

Yeah, the counter argument is that you mess up the team chemistry. This is extremely hard to define and measure so can sort of always be used.

Billy Beane is constantly attacked for destroying the looker room chemistry in the local press.

[kamaal]

>>you mess up the team chemistry.

True, only if you have a great team already and you don't desire messing it up. If that is the case, you wouldn't need that method at the first place.

On the other hand, teams are pretty dynamic these days given the interfaces and responsibilities are well defined. Or at least are largely defined well. So replacing team members is never really a problem.

[ghaff]

I'm not sure real counter-hypotheses so much as data only takes you so far.

- You can't always predict the future about a given player's performance.

- We're still arguing about what the right measures actually are (although there's more data all the time)

- There clearly are sometimes cases where personalities and attitude mean some player needs to leave even if his historical stats were good.