Haha no way. My highest rated posts have all been some vapid feel-good thing that I posted shortly after an article was submitted to HN. My detailed explanations that link to studies rarely get more than 10 points (same phenomenon occurs on Quora as well actually...)
I've been kicking myself that I didn't take sociology in university to study conversational dynamics on threaded internet forums. It continues to fascinate me
Getting "in" when a post has few comments and is going to attract a lot of comment readership quickly or stay on the frontpage for a while is probably more important than pure comment quality.
Absolutely true, and especially problematic because by their nature high-quality comments will take more time to formulate and therefore always be late to the party and get less visibility.