[evgen]

True, but if the LibDems can pull enough Blairites away from Corbyn and urban Tories away from May it will give the LibDems a core that they can move forward with. (I don't think they have a hope in hell of actually even getting enough MPs to play kingmakers, but they may be aiming to simply supplant Labour as the opposition party...)

[Silhouette]

The trouble is, the Lib Dems under Farron have essentially become a single-issue party.

That decision potentially alienates about 1/3 of their previous voter base who voted to Leave, as well as those who did want to Remain but either don't believe in overriding a popular referendum on democratic principles or don't feel strongly enough on the issue to disrupt things further.

Given that we're talking about the Lib Dems here, all of those could be significant groups. It's quite a gamble to bet your whole political strategy on attracting enough voters from other parties because they feel so strongly on Europe, and according to recent polling, it looks like it's a gamble that is going to fail unspectacularly.

[evgen]

Thinking about this more I am convinced Farron is on the right track. The leave/remain issue gives the LibDems an opening to expand and they should take it, there is no future in being 'not nasty enough to vote Tory but not dumb enough to vote Labour' and if both parties are willing to surrender an issue that at one point had the support of 48% of the country (and concentrated in a few areas to make campaigning easier) then you go for it.

Without such a gamble the LibDems will remain in the also-ran group with UKIP and the Greens. You push any issue that gives you a wedge and use it to crack a few ridings and if necessary you write off the 1/3 in the hope of picking up 2/5 of the two larger parties.

[irb]

I don't think it alienates any of their base. The Lib Dems have always been hugely pro-Europe, I doubt that anyone who voted Leave would have been a supporter in the first place.

[Silhouette]

I don't think it alienates any of their base.

FWIW, I know from immediate personal contacts that it does, and not in entirely trivial numbers. I'm in one of the most pro-Remain areas of the country, but also a LD/Lab marginal, so it will be interesting to see what happens as a result. I suspect it won't make much difference here, but if the same effect is evident in more moderate parts of the country, it could actually hurt them.

[Silhouette]

Sorry to reply twice; I can't edit my previous comment any more.

It looks like there's been another poll today that is consistent with what I've seen reported previously: about 1/3 of Lib Dem voters at the last election voted Leave in the referendum, and currently Lib Dem loyalty is lowest among the major parties, with a similar proportion of Lib Dem voters at the last election expecting to vote for someone else at the next one.

[evgen]

I don't have numbers in front of me, but I also can't think of a riding where the LibDems were within 5% last election that voted Leave. IMHO the odds seem better if the LibDems can claim "Remain if possible, soft Brexit if not" when it comes to picking up Tory and Labour seats.