[mathattack]

Consider the nation’s most prestigious award for scientifically gifted high school students, the Westinghouse Science Talent Search, called the Super Bowl of science by one American president. From its inception in 1942 until 1994, the search recognized more than 2000 precocious teenagers as finalists. But just 1 percent ended up making the National Academy of Sciences, and just eight have won Nobel Prizes.

8 out of 2000 is a lot higher than most any other sample group.

[beloch]

This is a classic "sounds small, but is actually huge" statistic. Most of these pop up when people are trying to be deceptive, but this one looks like a mistake. I'm surprised it slipped past both the author and editor.

[mlechha]

Exactly! 2000 in 8 is fucking ridiculous! For some context, there have been only 8 Chinese and 7 Indian Nobel Laureates. That's two of the most populated countries in the world!

[myle]

The article "forgets" that the pool of gifted children is much smaller than the general population. Of course, when you have a group of x people, and another group of λx people, you need to check whether you are getting the desired outcome from the two groups on a ration 1:λ and not on a 1:1 ratio.

The article is missing this point.

[plafl]

Yes, but I'm sure they are no Einsteins, which is of course the minimum we expect.